Monday, November 25, 2019

Snowstorm Dorothy Final Forecast

Here is the final update for much of Minnesota’s first real snowstorm, Winter Storm Dorothy. Many people have been waiting and anticipating this snowstorm for a while now, so here it is in all its glory! Dorothy will make its way through Kansas and up to Wisconsin, bringing a large swath of snow to Nebraska, Northwest Iowa, Southern Minnesota, and Wisconsin. Areas in the center of the path should get around 10” of snow and some spots could even see above a foot of snow. The storm should start at 5pm at the MN border, an 8pm beginning as you get to North St.Paul. This was a tricky storm to track with all its sudden shifts but I think I have finally gotten it all narrowed down. So, expect 8”-12” in the hardest hit areas and 5”-8” as you get into areas like Minneapolis and Sioux Falls. On the southeast side there will be a sharp gradient of heavy snow transitioning into rain in the La Crosse area, totals will rapidly drop from double digits to zero. It seems like that is all for this storm; I will always inform you if there is a sudden, extreme change in the future but this one is pretty solid. Make sure you are safe during your holiday travel and Happy Thanksgiving! All remaining live/real time updates will be on my Twitter @weatherkannon with 24/7 coverage as the storm hits.
                                         
                                                  Below is our expected snow total map.



 
                           Here is a map of NWS current watches and warnings in darker blue colors



Sunday, November 24, 2019

Snowstorm Dorothy Update

A semi-large winter storm is going to occur the day before thanksgiving and impact a lot of holiday travel Wednesday morning. A low pressure system from Canada will dive down to Colorado strengthen, then makes its way through Iowa and Wisconsin which will give much of the upper midwest a good chunk of snow. The storm should hit Nebraska Tuesday AM then start reaching Minnesota and Iowa Tuesday PM and last till about noon Wednesday. The main areas that will receive the most snow is much of Nebraska, Northern half of Iowa, All of southern Minnesota, and much of Wisconsin. Totals should be greater than 12” in much of Nebraska, then the storm will weaken and drop up to 12” in the heaviest bands. I waited longer than usual to post about this storm due to the uncertainty of the track, but now that the storm is on land we get a better view of where it will go. Even though the NWS has issued watches for this storm already, there is still a chance that this storm can shift North East or South East. I am posting a probability map to show where the storm is looking like it will currently track. I will release my final forecast around 9pm tomorrow with my snow Total map included, expect changes to be made!

Below is the NWS current watches and warnings for this storm



Thursday, October 10, 2019

Snowstorm Aubrey

The first snowstorm of the year is here, and is is packing a punch in the Dakota's. This is a strange system that will have two parts with it. the first part will hit Thursday morning into Friday morning and bring big time snow to the Dakota’s and bring a lot of rain on the eastern side in Minnesota. The second part is going to wrap around due to the insane tilt of this storm and bring a lot more snow to the Dakota’s then bring a couple inches of snow to much of Minnesota. Parts of North Dakota could see up to 2 feet of snow in some spots, then totals should rapidly drop to around 4” as you get into Minnesota. For South Dakota we should see widespread totals around 8” on the northeastern half of the state, in Minnesota the totals should be around 4” in the northwest then decrease to about a inch in the metro on grassy surfaces. Then after this is all done, all the snow should be gone and melted by Wednesday and way sooner for areas with less amounts. After this we should be snow free until late October/Early November.
Snow Forecast Thursday AM - Sunday PM

Sunday, October 6, 2019

Very Early Snowstorm....


I never thought I would need to post on here this early, but it seems that there’s a storm a comin. This year we will get a shot at a very early snowstorm for parts of Minnesota. There is a system with a massive cold front riding right behind it heading out way Thursday-Saturday, that will be half rain and half snow for many. The models currently have this storm starting off as rain and ending as snow right through Minnesota, totals will seem to split down the state. But we will have to see, since this is a early storm it is very easy for it to just end up being all rain for many in which I can see happening. Right now my confidence is at 60% for this storm dropping over 2” for much of MN, and possible 12”+ totals for north west Minnesota. So watch the forecast this week,  because it may get messy. My next update will be on Thursday at 11am. Here are some temperature anomaly’s for Friday, and what this storm might look like.


Friday, April 26, 2019

A small spring snowstorm

A small spring snow event will hit on Saturday morning and go through the after noon to give us 1”-3”. It will be a fast one and all the snow will be melted by Sunday night. This is one of four chances we have left for snow. The next three are April 29th, May 2nd and May 7th. Then we hope winter will be over. Then on to thunderstorms and tornadoes!




Wednesday, April 10, 2019

Official Final Snowstorm Update!

The snowstorm has started, and I seem to be the only one who got it right. Every news channel toned down their forecast to rain, but I noticed there was too much of a tilt and high winds coming from the north, and I predicted colder temperatures giving us snow. As I thought, the storm has been snow and heavy snowfall rates. The National Weather Service a meer 3 hours ago upgraded us to a winter storm warning with a forecast of 8”-14”, much higher then their 3”-5” from this morning. I noticed a bulk of energy is going to explode over southern Minnesota and hit us from 1am-5am, which will be our heaviest snow. Then at about 10am the snow will be sleet and Ice, and turn back to snow around 3pm which will last until 5am Friday. There should be around 13” on the ground by 9am Thursday morning, and the roads were not treated. This will be a big and bad one, on Thursday we should see sleet at 9am turning back to snow around 1pm. With moderate and light snow to continue on Friday, giving us around 17” total (not counting snow melted during the storm). And remember to enjoy your day off tomorrow 😉. Snow from 3pm Wednesday- 3pm Friday below.

Tuesday, April 9, 2019

April Snowstorm Shift

Here is a very short informing post on what has changed in the storm. The rain/snow line shifted north like I expected, but a little more north than I thought. The rain/snow line is now around the metro, and is threatening our snow totals. Which is why I have us in the ~12” range. I beleive we won’t get as warm as they thinking we will so I have us in the upper range of the metro. On my snow map I made you can see I have put the warning of the possible shift in the rain/snow line, make sure you watch the radar to see if it will be rain or snow. Below I have the future radar for the storm, start time 7pm Wednesday.

Monday, April 8, 2019

Giant April Snowstorm

Here is my second post on the Wednesday - Friday snowstorm post. This is not the final “most accurate” post, that one will come out Wednesday morning. So this is a massive Colorado low that is bringing a lot of moisture with it, and it is very slow so the duration is long with more totals. Much of the area will see 15+ totals as of right now. Many people wonder where the cold air is coming from because it is 70 degrees today. Well the same high pressure system that is giving us the warm air right now is that same one that will be swinging the cold air down as it leaves into Canada, thats what is feeding us the cold air for this storm to be possible. My guess is that tomorrow night the tracks will start to push the rain/snow line further north but not entering Minneapolis. Because these storms tend to do that on the charts right before they hit. The current models are saying around 40” for very western Minnesota and South Dakota, but I know that those will go down about 15 inches as they usually do which is why I have around 24” for that area. We can expect the snow to roll in around mid-day on Wednesday and start to leave Fridays around the morning rush hour. This is one giant storm that has 2 parts. The first part of the storm will reach out in a heavy band Wednesday night giving about +12” to southern Minnesota and South Dakota. Then it will be moderate to light snow for 12 hours, we see the final back part of heavy snow bring a final blow of about ~12” more. The areas where these two bands over lap is where I give the 18”-24” range, and the Occasional 24”+. The total duration of the storm should be about 36-48 hours, my chances for no school in Minneapolis is 40% Wednesday, 90% Thursday, and 70% Friday. That is all I have for now on this storm, and the final %100 accurate update will be Wednesday At Noon CT.

Saturday, April 6, 2019

Super April Snowstorn Possibilities

So I did not think I would need to post about winter on this for a while, but I was wrong... There is a Super Snowstorm heading towards the Midwest, but where it will hit it is a mystery. Models have been showing confidence in the storm being some part in Minnesota, ranging from the very north to the very south. The past 5 runs have been a good 20” for Minneapolis except for one, which has the storm diving to southern Minnesota and Minneapolis getting nothing. But we know the storm is coming, we just don’t know where as usual. So right now I have a 40% chance for the snow part of the storm hitting the Minneapolis area. I will post a more fine tuned update Monday night before 6pm, and the final update on Wednesday. Make sure you keep a eye on this storm and check my website on Monday. Here are the past 5 model runs below, in order left to right, newest to oldest.






Friday, March 8, 2019

Strong Colorado Low

A nice Colorado Low is going to hit Saturday Bringing more than a foot to some areas. This storm will march across Minnesota starting Saturday Morning and ending Sunday morning. This will bring the wet heavy snow that is hard for shoveling and will not compact. We will see around 10” for the metro and in the 12”+ range as you go west. This snow is the type that turns to slush on the ground and freezes, so it will be a mess. Thats all for this storm and I am keeping my eye out and a large rain storm with 2”+ possible with 20F temps the next day that will freeze everything causeing major problems.

Saturday, February 23, 2019

Panhandle Hook for SE Minnesota

A panhandle hook will sweep through SE minnesota dropping a giant amount of snow in some spots. Minneapolis won’t completely miss out on this snow but will get a good amount of 5 or 6 inches. It will start saturday around 7pm and end sunday around 8am. The track could change by moving closer to the metro and giving us a little more, but it is unlikely for that to happen. Even though this storm isnt as much snow, southern Minnesota will be in the worst conditions. A blizzard warning has been issued for much of southern Minnesota with white out conditions, driving will not be recommended. So make sure you stay safe, because the start of march is looking to be below 0 at this moment.


Tuesday, February 19, 2019

Finnaly a nice stable storm


A big record breaking snowfall is finally here! This storm will bring 8-12 inches for much of Minnesota overnight tonight. This will also break our record for snowiest Febuary ever! Almost every school will be cancelled and make sure you drive safe! So 8”-12” for much of the area and I will have a update soon for the Sunday snowstorm.





Monday, February 11, 2019

Another Round of Big Snow!?

We have another snow storm that will hit tomorrow. I know you guys might be tired of the snow but I want more, I can never get enough. So there is a colorado low that is coming out of the rockies and another low system coming south out of mexico and these two will phase together making it so strong. Then it will pull up tonight bringing us all of our snow overnight. You may be thinking “well every other place says it will be more east than you say” well let me awnser your question on why I think it will be more west. Its all about patterns and knowledge, the past 3 winter storms (tuesday, thursday, sunday 20” in total) every model/meteorologist has pushed the tracks South or East right before the snow starts but then when the storm hits they move it back to the North West, back where they had it 3 days before the storms even started. So based on this pattern we can assume that when this storm starts they will move tracks back over the twin cities when they realize they can’t get anything right. So you can expect the snow to start around 10pm tonight and end around 1pm, with 8”-12” in the end.

Sunday, January 27, 2019

The First Big Storm

The big snowstorm is finally here, and the totals will be near what I though the whole time. the storm should start today around 5 pm for the metro and end around 12 pm Monday. totals should be around 12" for the metro and around 16" for the south metro and that band will continue east. Blowing snow will be big for this, drifts could be up to 5 ft in open areas and up to 10 ft against houses. driving will be bad with the blowing snow with very low visibility. so make sure you leave extra early for work, and schools will probably be canceled. so enjoy this first snow storm of the season, and there are chances for a storm next week so watch out.

Friday, January 25, 2019

Alberta Clipper Update

Here is a long update for the snowstorm on Sunday through Monday. Snow totals seem to be rising for the area as the storm is showing more strength and more quantitative precipitation in the forecast things are looking real. I have the totals around 18 inches in the heart of the storm due to the temperature and the amount that will fall. Now for the kinda complicated part. The snow totals would be around 7 inches if this were a normal storm. The temperatures in this storm will be very low (Image Below). which is favored for a 40:1 snow ratio (Image Below).

Here to the left I have the forecasted QPF. Which you can plug into the table and see we should get 28 inches, but I am not ready to put totals like that up because there are many factors like compression and  blowing snow. So the real question is if the snow ratio will be 1:40 or 1:20 but either way we will have at least 15 inches, I am expecting it to be around 1:40 but that will mean a lot of blowing snow and huge drifts up to 6 ft, but around 16 inches on the ground. So make sure you catch my final map and prediction which will be uploaded on Sunday.




Wednesday, January 23, 2019

Possible Strong Alberta Clipper

A very rare storm system is coming our way, a Alberta clipper that has a lot of moisture will come out of Canada. To remind you, clippers usually drop only a couple inches of snow which is the reason this is so rare. Areas could see up to 20 inches of snow! But remember this may change due to the factors of moisture, dry air, instability, and air temperature. I won’t be surprised if this storm ends up dropping to only 5” snow totals or shifts. I wanted to post this because the tracks have been consistant and totals only keep going up. And we know that in the past, storms have suddenly shifted or died down so don’t expect these totals. The storm will hit Sunday night around 8pm and end Monday evening around 6pm, so if this stays true school will likely be canceled. This is my current estimate to let everyone know about the possible threats and to beware of them for traveling purposes. I will post on Saturday night or Sunday the Final revision of my forecast, I may post small updates here or there before the storm on my Twitter to the right. So the forecast you can 100% trust will be out later in the week, just remember to stay tuned and check my Twitter in the meantime.

Friday, January 18, 2019

The first snow chance of 2019 is here, it is a small storm but it is the most we have had all year. The main threat is blowing winds which will get the visiblillity down, the storm should be over by tommorrow morning. the metro can expect 3"-6" and south minnesota 6"-9". stay safe and use this snow wisely. Make sure to tune in monday for the possible snow storm.





Tuesday, January 15, 2019

Snow Drought

Its has been 15 days since the metro area has seen any snow, that is why the website has not been very active, the next possible "big" chance for snow is around January 31st which might not even happen, so no snow for the next 10 days. So lets hope it changes