Wednesday, December 26, 2018

Significant snowstorm

There is a large snowstorm hitting right now, with areas getting up to 20 inches. This was a very hard storm to predict with the rain and snow line. it will turn to rain most of the metro ans southern minnesota by morning. I did not have very long to type this so that is all. have a safe night!

Saturday, December 1, 2018

Major snowstorm for midwest PT2.

The snowstorm in the midwest continues to plow through. mostly over for the western part of the country but its just beggining here in the midwest. Nebraska will continue to see 12+ more inches of snow through the next day. But there is a high chance a strong heavy band will set up in southern minnesota moving north, where we will see totals in the south range from 8"-12" and totals in the central state in the 3"-8" range. so this will be a big one. If you haven't read my first post to this storm, go do that! So dont take this snow for granted and go have fun!
Snow map of how much more will fall, below


Friday, November 30, 2018

Major Snowstorm for the upper midwest

That's right! A snowstorm is on its way for Saturday and Sunday. Snowfall maps right now are really hard to predict so there will be a update around noon tomorrow that will be almost exact in amounts. The current prediction has gone up due to the latest 12z model runs for the NAM and GFS. There will be a large area of 12"-18" on the South Dakota Nebraska boarder, and a small band of  8"-12" going through Minnesota. There will be a sharp gradient which is the main reason this is so hard to predict, and the fact that it is going to start as rain and turn to snow. You may think "Why is the mainstream media weather prediction so much less?" They usually are less because they don't want the risk of over predicting snow (like in previous events) and getting lots of hate from people, they will tend to under predict the snow to stay safe. For example, in the Iowa snowstorm the mainstream weather stations predicted 6"-8" for the snowstorm while I said 12"-18" and in the end they got widespread 14"-18" totals. My prediction was also 3 days before the event, that proves how my hardcore research pays off. And that is why you may see such under predicted totals. So remember to check in tomorrow for the final forecast

Friday, November 23, 2018

The first big snowstorm of the winter is here for most of the Midwest with some areas getting up to 15 inches! A low pressure system from the Colorado Rockies will bring cold air along with moisture bringing the perfect conditions for snow. The snow will start around 2 pm in western Iowa and slowly make its way through Illinois and Michigan by the end of Monday. this will be a big one, and the Dakotas, Minnesota, and much of Wisconsin will miss out on it. But they will have a chance at a similar storm next week  ;)





Friday, November 16, 2018

Another Alberta clipper for the upper midwest

Another low pressure system is coming from the north west that will bring anywhere from 1 to 9 inches for the upper midwest on friday night through saturday morning. The low pressure system will track from the dakotas moving southeast bringing cold air and snow with it. north dakota has the best chance of snow by seeing 6+ inches in many locations, and the swath will continue just south of the twin cities beinging 3-6 inches in most areas. we could see one 7+ inch snow fall total in minnesota, but right now tracks are showing that the system will die down as it moves along.

Thursday, November 8, 2018

Small Storm For The Great Lakes

The first snow for many in the midwest will hit on the 8th and 9th. Ranging from 1 inch to 6 inches. There is a low pressure system coming from the south west, along with the jet stream lowering causing the huge cold blast will result in accumulating snow! regarding the snow, daily highs in the upper midwest will stay below freezing (including tuesdays forcast high of 19 for minneapolis!) for the the next week or two before going up above freezing for a bit, then we get into the real start of winter. Most of the areas in this snows path will see 1"-3" unless you are in the UP of Michigan which could see 6+ in!

Monday, November 5, 2018

Official Midwest Weather Winter Outlook 2018-2019


It's about that time, when everyone is asking, what will the winter be like? Well, we have some of the answers you are looking for. The winter forecast is not as clear cut as some years in the past, but there are some trends out there that show clues into what the fine winter enthusiasts of this site should expect.

First, let's start with the process into how the outlook was constructed. We will use 4 major teleconnections that are useful to forecast the weather out several months to a year in the future. The most influential and most common lies in the level that ENSO is expected to be in. ENSO is essentially a measure of how warm the ocean temperatures are in the Central Pacific. If the specific region is warmer than normal it is classified as an El Nino, colder is classified as a La Nina, and near normal is in the neutral phase. The phase tends to flip from El Nino to La Nina every 8 month to over a year at times. For our purposes in the winter forecast, we are currently in the neutral phase and expected to trend towards an El Nino moving into winter. Consequently, we will only use years that followed the same trend.

The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is a similar measure or oscillation that goes from the warm to cold stage every 5-10+ years, and examines ocean temperatures in the northern Pacific. It is near neutral and is likely to hover around the neutral stage through the winter, we will give it 2x weight. The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) is similar to the PDO, and should stay in the warm phase through 2019, as its period of change can be well over a decade. Since the AMO is a measure in the North Atlantic, we will use less of a weight, since it is downstream of the weather in the United States. Finally the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) is a regular variation in the wind direction near the equator located in the stratosphere and can influence the weather around the world. It is a wind that blows in the same direction for roughly 14 months then completely flips direction. Based on history, the QBO should eventually flip direction, which should occur sometime during the winter, so years with a flip from negative to positive during the winter will be used for the forecast.


Putting it all together, 5 similar years since 1950 were looked at then averaged against the values from the entire period. Essentially, the map above is what we may expect in terms of temperatures during the months of December through February this winter. Notice the colder air from the Plains down through the Southeast. Some warmer temperatures are housed in the Great Lakes, but overall cooler than normal temperatures are expected this winter across the Midwest.


Looking and precipitation now, we see an above normal signal across the Midwest, and a well above normal signal across the West Coast. Colder than normal and above normal precipitation will also favor above normal snowfall overall. However, notice there are some southwest to northeast strips of above/below normal areas east of the Rockies. It may signal the risk for larger storm systems, and more hit/miss events in aggregate through the winter season. At the end of the day, slightly above normal snowfall is favored, but as always it will come down to where each individual storm track goes. There will be an above normal amount of chances for snow this winter, so be sure to keep up to date with Midwest Weather through the winter, as the blog becomes much more active. Credit to Tanner Verstegen at http://www .midwestweather.org/   and follow him on Twitter and  Facebook for more great weather predicting! My own 2018-2019 weather outlook will be up by Nov. 9th!

Sunday, October 14, 2018

Small Dose Of Snow Possible

This sunday we will get a quick dose of snow, rangeing from a trace to 5 inches. but its that time of season so we can't garuntee that these are the exact amounts. the low pressure system effecting colorado and the areas around that has shifted north unexpectedly, causing the quick change in the forecast. It seems it will be a early start to winter this year, with this being the second snow so far, it will be the only snow for a while. remember drive safe and dress accoringly
Snow map Below




Wednesday, October 10, 2018


  A quick update for this showing how the models are continuing to trend towards snow possibilities tonight in the metro. as the rest of the storm continues to wind down don't expect much accumulation.

Tuesday, October 9, 2018

First Flakes and Accumulation!



Yes, you see it. I see it. We all see it. Its....SNOW! We are finally getting our first accumulation in much on Minnesota this week, and the metro getting the first flakes of the season! A low pressure system is coming up from the south, but at the same time a high pressure system to the north-east is pushing cold air down giving the temperatures we need for snow just as the system leaves. That is what will be giving us our chance for flakes! There will be a fifty-fifty chance of the metro getting flakes which will occur around 11pm-2am Wednesday night/ Thursday morning. So if you hate the snow, just go to sleep and you will be fine. But if you want to see it you definitely will want to stay up to catch a glimpse. Now talking snow totals for north-east Minnesota. We will see a band of about 3"- 6" and local areas of 6"+. Then a narrow cutoff area of 1-3" then going to large area with at most a trace of snow or just flakes. So get ready for the start of winter is here, and remember how to drive in the snow! I will be posting at least 2 times a week since the winter is here! Snow map below.


Thursday, September 20, 2018

Severe Weather September 20th



Devolopement in the tropics southwest of the U.S has shot a giant load of moisture our way, and with the low pressure system the shear and instability this is going to be a big outbreak
storms should fire up around 4pm in western minnesota and roll through the metro around 7pm. The main threat is 60-80 mph winds in the gust front ahead of the storms, there is also a chance for large hail in isolated cells and a 10% chance of tornados 25 miles from a point in the designated area (shown above). So that means we should see at least 5 tornado warnings with these storms. These storms will be formed as a front, and even thought you cant see it on a basic radar there will be cells within the line of storms bringing the most powerful impact, so plan your day accodingly. Be smart and stay Safe!

Here is the timing or the storms and what they will look like below.


Sunday, July 29, 2018

Sunday July 29th Storms

Around 3pm spotty showers and thunderstorms will pop up in the northern Midwest. Then at the same time some severe thunderstorms in Colorado will pop up, some producing tornadoes then rolling through Kansas and Oklahoma overnight. Storms also in the Illinois area this morning. 

Saturday, July 28, 2018

Welcome!

      
Welcome to my new weather page! If you live In the midwest you can find out if there will be a big winter storm in your area or severe weather! I also have a astronomical weather tab, you can see when the next meteor shower is or when northern lights will be present! I will update on winter storms every day! During the summer I will only post on severe weather the night before. If you have any questions, send them to me at
kannkalton@gmail.com or on Twitter. Please support by following the blog and sharing. Thank You!