Thursday, October 10, 2019

Snowstorm Aubrey

The first snowstorm of the year is here, and is is packing a punch in the Dakota's. This is a strange system that will have two parts with it. the first part will hit Thursday morning into Friday morning and bring big time snow to the Dakota’s and bring a lot of rain on the eastern side in Minnesota. The second part is going to wrap around due to the insane tilt of this storm and bring a lot more snow to the Dakota’s then bring a couple inches of snow to much of Minnesota. Parts of North Dakota could see up to 2 feet of snow in some spots, then totals should rapidly drop to around 4” as you get into Minnesota. For South Dakota we should see widespread totals around 8” on the northeastern half of the state, in Minnesota the totals should be around 4” in the northwest then decrease to about a inch in the metro on grassy surfaces. Then after this is all done, all the snow should be gone and melted by Wednesday and way sooner for areas with less amounts. After this we should be snow free until late October/Early November.
Snow Forecast Thursday AM - Sunday PM

Sunday, October 6, 2019

Very Early Snowstorm....

I never thought I would need to post on here this early, but it seems that there’s a storm a comin. This year we will get a shot at a very early snowstorm for parts of Minnesota. There is a system with a massive cold front riding right behind it heading out way Thursday-Saturday, that will be half rain and half snow for many. The models currently have this storm starting off as rain and ending as snow right through Minnesota, totals will seem to split down the state. But we will have to see, since this is a early storm it is very easy for it to just end up being all rain for many in which I can see happening. Right now my confidence is at 60% for this storm dropping over 2” for much of MN, and possible 12”+ totals for north west Minnesota. So watch the forecast this week,  because it may get messy. My next update will be on Thursday at 11am. Here are some temperature anomaly’s for Friday, and what this storm might look like.

Friday, April 26, 2019

A small spring snowstorm

A small spring snow event will hit on Saturday morning and go through the after noon to give us 1”-3”. It will be a fast one and all the snow will be melted by Sunday night. This is one of four chances we have left for snow. The next three are April 29th, May 2nd and May 7th. Then we hope winter will be over. Then on to thunderstorms and tornadoes!

Wednesday, April 10, 2019

Official Final Snowstorm Update!

The snowstorm has started, and I seem to be the only one who got it right. Every news channel toned down their forecast to rain, but I noticed there was too much of a tilt and high winds coming from the north, and I predicted colder temperatures giving us snow. As I thought, the storm has been snow and heavy snowfall rates. The National Weather Service a meer 3 hours ago upgraded us to a winter storm warning with a forecast of 8”-14”, much higher then their 3”-5” from this morning. I noticed a bulk of energy is going to explode over southern Minnesota and hit us from 1am-5am, which will be our heaviest snow. Then at about 10am the snow will be sleet and Ice, and turn back to snow around 3pm which will last until 5am Friday. There should be around 13” on the ground by 9am Thursday morning, and the roads were not treated. This will be a big and bad one, on Thursday we should see sleet at 9am turning back to snow around 1pm. With moderate and light snow to continue on Friday, giving us around 17” total (not counting snow melted during the storm). And remember to enjoy your day off tomorrow 😉. Snow from 3pm Wednesday- 3pm Friday below.

Tuesday, April 9, 2019

April Snowstorm Shift

Here is a very short informing post on what has changed in the storm. The rain/snow line shifted north like I expected, but a little more north than I thought. The rain/snow line is now around the metro, and is threatening our snow totals. Which is why I have us in the ~12” range. I beleive we won’t get as warm as they thinking we will so I have us in the upper range of the metro. On my snow map I made you can see I have put the warning of the possible shift in the rain/snow line, make sure you watch the radar to see if it will be rain or snow. Below I have the future radar for the storm, start time 7pm Wednesday.

Monday, April 8, 2019

Giant April Snowstorm

Here is my second post on the Wednesday - Friday snowstorm post. This is not the final “most accurate” post, that one will come out Wednesday morning. So this is a massive Colorado low that is bringing a lot of moisture with it, and it is very slow so the duration is long with more totals. Much of the area will see 15+ totals as of right now. Many people wonder where the cold air is coming from because it is 70 degrees today. Well the same high pressure system that is giving us the warm air right now is that same one that will be swinging the cold air down as it leaves into Canada, thats what is feeding us the cold air for this storm to be possible. My guess is that tomorrow night the tracks will start to push the rain/snow line further north but not entering Minneapolis. Because these storms tend to do that on the charts right before they hit. The current models are saying around 40” for very western Minnesota and South Dakota, but I know that those will go down about 15 inches as they usually do which is why I have around 24” for that area. We can expect the snow to roll in around mid-day on Wednesday and start to leave Fridays around the morning rush hour. This is one giant storm that has 2 parts. The first part of the storm will reach out in a heavy band Wednesday night giving about +12” to southern Minnesota and South Dakota. Then it will be moderate to light snow for 12 hours, we see the final back part of heavy snow bring a final blow of about ~12” more. The areas where these two bands over lap is where I give the 18”-24” range, and the Occasional 24”+. The total duration of the storm should be about 36-48 hours, my chances for no school in Minneapolis is 40% Wednesday, 90% Thursday, and 70% Friday. That is all I have for now on this storm, and the final %100 accurate update will be Wednesday At Noon CT.

Saturday, April 6, 2019

Super April Snowstorn Possibilities

So I did not think I would need to post about winter on this for a while, but I was wrong... There is a Super Snowstorm heading towards the Midwest, but where it will hit it is a mystery. Models have been showing confidence in the storm being some part in Minnesota, ranging from the very north to the very south. The past 5 runs have been a good 20” for Minneapolis except for one, which has the storm diving to southern Minnesota and Minneapolis getting nothing. But we know the storm is coming, we just don’t know where as usual. So right now I have a 40% chance for the snow part of the storm hitting the Minneapolis area. I will post a more fine tuned update Monday night before 6pm, and the final update on Wednesday. Make sure you keep a eye on this storm and check my website on Monday. Here are the past 5 model runs below, in order left to right, newest to oldest.